Special Online Reading & Discussion “Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance:”
A most recent article by Tomas Pueyo and invitation to join Neil Dunaetz in discussing it on Zoom.
Sunday, March 29 – Thursday, April 2, 2020
9-11 am Pacific. Noon – 2 pm Eastern (attend one or more days)
NOTING a second excellent article by Tomas Pueyo, Neil Dunaetz writes: “In “Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance: What the Next 18 Months Can Look Like, if Leaders Buy Us Time” Pueyo makes a distinction between “MITIGATION,” also known as “FLATTENING THE CURVE” somewhat, and “SUPPRESSION,” measures that quickly “BREAK THE BACK” of pandemic transmission of the coronavirus (as has been achieved in several East Asia countries).” [emphasis added by Katarina]
The seminar will centre on ” the goal of understanding Pueyo’s distinction between “mitigation” and “suppression”
At the end of this post are quotes from the article.
Neil Dunaetz writes:
In “Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance: What the Next 18 Months Can Look Like, if Leaders Buy Us Time” Pueyo makes a distinction between “mitigation,” also known as “flattening the curve” somewhat, and “suppression,” measures that quickly “break the back” of pandemic transmission of the coronavirus (as has been achieved in several East Asia countries).
I feel this to be the best thinking to date on what we are up against and what we need to do.
Starting tomorrow, Sunday March 29, I will host a series of discussions on Zoom with the goal of understanding Pueyo’s distinction between “mitigation” and “suppression” as differing strategic approaches to dealing with the coronavirus outbreak, and their respective differing implications for our future.
Sunday March 29, 12pm-2pm New York time
Monday March 30, 12pm-2pm New York
Wednesday April 1, 12pm-2pm New York
Thursday April 2, 12pm-2pm New York.
You may join any one or more of these gently-moderated-by-me discussions, as you wish. Let me know if you are interested and I will send you the Zoom link. It is free to participate.
Please try to read the article in advance, if you can. If you don’t, that’s OK too.
And feel free to forward this email to others who might be interested.
QUOTING FROM THE ARTICLE
This article follows Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now, with over 40 million views and 30 translations. If you agree with this article, consider signing the corresponding White House petition. Over 30 translations available at the bottom. Running list of endorsements here. Over 10 million views so far.
Summary of the article: Strong coronavirus measures today should only last a few weeks, there shouldn’t be a big peak of infections afterwards, and it can all be done for a reasonable cost to society, saving millions of lives along the way. If we don’t take these measures, tens of millions will be infected, many will die, along with anybody else that requires intensive care, because the healthcare system will have collapsed.
Within a week, countries around the world have gone from: “This coronavirus thing is not a big deal” to declaring the state of emergency. Yet many countries are still not doing much. Why?
Every country is asking the same question: How should we respond? The answer is not obvious to them.
Some countries, like France, Spain or Philippines, have since ordered heavy lockdowns. Others, like the US, UK, or Switzerland, have dragged their feet, hesitantly venturing into social distancing measures.
Here’s what we’re going to cover today, again with lots of charts, data and models with plenty of sources:
- What’s the current situation?
- What options do we have?
- What’s the one thing that matters now: Time
- What does a good coronavirus strategy look like?
- How should we think about the economic and social impacts?